How to Analyze a Special Situation – What We Cover
Here at The Edge, we define a Special Situation in two ways: They are either internal catalysts or external catalysts. External catalysts are mainly short-term events such as M&A in a sector or a change in regulation. They can play out longer-term with respect to industry shifts. Internal catalysts are events that materially affect the business and a change in structure, such as a Spinoff, sale or rights issue.
We source the events for our client partners after extensive screening. We analyze from the bottom up pre- and post-event, and then the probability of return is assigned to the outcome using not only our analysis, but – more importantly – our intelligence.
What we avoid are speculative takeovers, stories or tips from our friends, no matter who they are. They rarely play out; to be honest, even if they do play out as expected (and this is a big if), you are probably near the bottom of the pile to be told or usually at the bottom to find out. Long-term, you are a loser on this strategy.
The Edge’s process will give you the maximum chance of winning based on the facts, analyst expertise and our intelligence – get the Edge you need over the markets with investment ideas you can trust!