As regular readers of our monthly’s know, I’m a fan of cycles and cyclicality. My whole (albeit tiny) view of the world is based on cyclical movements. Ever wonder why sometimes things get good and then you feel down? Perhaps that holiday feeling after you have been away, or perhaps the day after a big occasion, or even a relationship? The chances are it is to do with the cycle you are currently in.
I take this approach to investing. Not only on a macro view, but also on a stock view. For example, the market is clearly on the familiar 10-year cycle. It goes up and you buy the dips. For me, the top of the market is characterised by a few things.